Stocks for some run

May 10, 2019 | OSM

Motivation This string of posts is meant to help non-professional investors understand some of the complexities involved in choosing an investment strategy, suggest a logical framework on how to do just that, and offer different ways to analyze the data that motivate the strategies we’ll examine. Strategies for the ...
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What do machines know about the yield curve?

May 3, 2019 | OSM

A recession a year from now? As we saw in the last post, when we run a model with a 6-month look forward, it does a fairly reasonable job in predicting a recession, assuming we use a threshold closer to recession base rate. In this post, we look...
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Yield curve predictions twist my noodle

April 18, 2019 | OSM

Where did we go wrong? Not another model! As we saw in the last post, one iteration of the yield curve – the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries – doesn’t generate a great model of recession probabilities. Part of this is that recessio...
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Yield curve predictions are really hard

April 16, 2019 | OSM

All models are wrong Build the model In the last post, we discussed the yield curve, why investors focus on it, and looked at one measure of the curve – the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields. In this post, we build a model that...
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Yield curve predictions are hard

April 15, 2019 | OSM

Introduction What is a yield curve? (Skip if you already know!) Show me the data! (Start here if don’t want the background) Investing pundits like to quote the yield curve as a nearly infallible indicator for the next recession. But what do the ...
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Random Forest Classification with Python

March 31, 2019 | Dr. Darrin

Random forest is a type of machine learning algorithm in which the algorithm makes multiple decision trees that may use different features and subsample to making as many trees as you specify. The trees then vote to determine the class of an example. This approach helps to deal with the ...
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