Tactics over strategies

May 31, 2019 | OSM

In our last post, we discussed the potential for adding a tactical trigger to execute a strategy. In this case, the strategy is investing in a large cap stock index that allows us achieve a compounded annual return of 7% and limits the yearly deviat...
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Fed up

May 24, 2019 | OSM

Yield curve predictions are hitting the headlines again here, here, and here, though they’re not quite front page. The alarm bells are ringing since the probability of a recession appears to have increased meaningfully in the past few months. We loo...
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Statistically speaking

May 16, 2019 | OSM

In our last post, we defined the goal of an investment strategy, showed how comparing strategies may not be as straightforward as one would imagine, and outlined some critical questions that need to be answered when weighing competing strategies. In...
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Stocks for some run

May 10, 2019 | OSM

Motivation This string of posts is meant to help non-professional investors understand some of the complexities involved in choosing an investment strategy, suggest a logical framework on how to do just that, and offer different ways to analyze the data that motivate the strategies we’ll examine. Strategies for the ...
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What do machines know about the yield curve?

May 3, 2019 | OSM

A recession a year from now? As we saw in the last post, when we run a model with a 6-month look forward, it does a fairly reasonable job in predicting a recession, assuming we use a threshold closer to recession base rate. In this post, we look...
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